Olympic Prediction: 400 Individual Medley

With the first day of swimming over and done with, we can pretty much see how the landscape of this meet will turnout. That said, I can make my predictions regarding the 400 IM and the 400 freestyle as sound as can be. 

400 IM Finalists

1. Kosuke Hagino (4:10.01)

2. Chad Le Clos (4:12.24)

3. Ryan Lochte (4:12.35)

4. Thiago Perereira (4:12.39)

5. Thomas Fraser-Holmes (4:12.66)

6. Luca Marin (4:13.02)

7. Yuya Horihata (4:13.09)

8. Michael Phelps (4:13.33)

9. Laszlo Cseh (4:13.40)

Part 1 of the Phelps-Lochte duel almost did not happen. After opening up strong in the butterfly with a 54 point something, Phelps held back. Really held back. It is a common practice, of course, for swimmers to have a swim-to-qualify-in-the-finals mindset in a trials-finals (or trials-semi-finals-finals) format. It is a matter of energy conservation and management, you see. The key here is to know exactly how to cruise to actually make it into the final without endangering your chances. So the question is, how slow can you go to still be fast enough?

But Phelps is in--however barely--which keeps the showdown alive.  

Time and again, both men have proven that they are the most versatile swimmers in the world. Their superiority and mastery over one of the most grueling events in swimming--one that showcases all the stroke disciplines in grand fashion--only proves that both have a claim to the title of the Greatest Swimmer in the World.

Notwithstanding their lane assignments (Lochte in Lane 3, Phelps in Lane 8), the 400 IM will just be about Michael and Ryan. Period. I foresee no upsets. But who will come out on top in the first round of the Phelps-Lochte showdown?

Prediction: Ryan Lochte (4:05.75) wins over Michael Phelps (4:05.89).

I base this prediction on two things. First, Ryan has owned Michael in the breaststroke leg ever since the 2010 Pan Pacific Championships. Whatever lead the two will have in the first 200 of the race will cancel each other out since Michael is the better butterflier while Ryan is the better backstroker. Michael will surely play catch up in the freestyle but Ryan has been very adept at holding him off; his lead in the breaststroke has always been too much for his rival. Second, Ryan has been better with his turns and underwater techniques. Michael, in contrast, has not been displaying that uncanny dominance quite like he used too that Ryan has been capitalizing on it.

By my calculations, round 1 to Ryan Lochte.