All things considered and held constant, the 4x100 meter freestyle relay is going to be duel between Australia and the USA. The French and Russians may keep things interesting by challenging USA just like what they did in the 2011 World Championships in Shanghai. But something tells me that it will not be the case this time around. The Americans are the defending Olympic champions while the Australians are extremely fast.
My Thoughts after the Prelims
Australia won the prelims over the USA after James "The Missle" Magnussen chased down Jason "The Miracle Man" Lezak. That prelim win guaranteed the Australians top seed in the finals while the USA will be right beside them in Lane 5.
Team Australia was composed of Cameron McEvoy (48.94), James Roberts (48.22), Tommaso D'Orsogna (47.78) and James Magnussen (47.35).
Team USA, on the other hand, was represented by Jimmy Feigen (48.49), Matt Grevers (47.54), Ricky Berens (48.52) and Jason Lezak (48.08).
Before the relay, rumors circulated that the Australian coaches wanted to insert Magnussen in the prelims. The reasons I heard were varied but in my mind, the inclusion of the fastest 100 meter freestyler in the preliminary heats can only mean one of two things. Either the Australians are making sure that they have the top seed coming finals or they are using The Missile as an intimidation tactic. Whatever the reason, it worked.
However, I was kind of surprised that both the fastest and second fastest 100 meter freestyler swam in the heats for Australia. The inclusion of James "The Rocket" Roberts was very much a mystery to me since conventional strategy dictates that one does not immediately show your best hand until the time is right. I was actually expecting to see Eamon Sullivan in the heats instead of Roberts so that the latter will be fresher and more rested in the finals. Whatever the reason, the test fire round of the Missile and the Rocket was successful. They had decent splits but it was evident that they were holding back plenty.
Team USA went with the line up I expected. Their strategy was sound, relying on an eager youngster to start them off (Feigen), two freestyle veterans to keep them in pace (Grevers and Berens) and a living legend and tough-as-nails closer to bring them home (Lezak). Sure, Lezak may have been overtaken by the hard-charging Magnussen but one has to credit Lezak for two things. One, he actually had to make Magnussen work to overtake him and two, he held off the Russians who were always coming in fast. His split may be off of his legendary 46.06 in Beijing but his 48.08 got the job done nonetheless.
The Finals
As is the case in such meets, the final heat will feature different line-ups from both teams, with one or two swimmers from the morning prelims being retained to swim once more.
For the Australians, their finals team will obviously be Magnussen, Roberts, Matt Targett and Eamon Sullivan, swimming in that order too. They will be relying on pure speed--capitalizing on having the top two sprinters in the world as well as the former world record holder in Sullivan. For them to secure the gold, they have to leave everybody in their wake and keep them all at a distance. Simple enough.
The Americans, on the other hand, have to rely on experience, timing and of course luck to pull out all the stops and defend their gold. Their luxury, of course, is having either Michael Phelps or Ryan Lochte (or both of them if need be) in their finals team along with Nathan Adrian and Cullen Jones. In my opinion, Michael will be the better option since he has swam a 48-low in a meet before the Olympic trials and has always been faster in the 100 free than Lochte.
From their prelims team, I wager that Grevers will be called up on account of his 47.54 split. With that, I thinking that the best possible order for the US will be Phelps, Jones, Grevers and Adrian. Phelps can, at best, swim a 47.89 or at worst a 48.10. Either way, his job will be to stay as close to Magnussen as possible since the Missile will surely be swimming anywhere from 46.90 to 47.20. Making up for that 1 second difference will now be the task of Grevers and Jones, who will have no problems swimming a 47-mid to high thanks to the relay turnover or "flying start". Adrian will have the toughest job yet of either sustaining a very narrow lead or chasing down a former record holder. He will have to time a 46-high or 47-low, I imagine.
Conclusion
On paper, the Australians have got this one in the bag. But then again what is written on paper does not necessarily translate to reality in the Olympic Games. Just ask Alain Bernard and the French if you do not believe me. We will have to wait and see what happens tomorrow. If there is one thing is certain in this race it is that it will be a battle. Pure aquatic battle.
Take your mark!
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