After the semi-finals, the landscape of the mens 200 butterfly is clear. The times put up by the finalists tell a great story which is about to unfold in a few hours. However, the greatest story is without a doubt Michael Phelps' chance to three-peat in his signature event. More than his date with destiny, what makes this swim sentimental is that the 200 fly is where it all began for Phelps. His Olympic debut as a lanky 15 year old kid in the 2000 Sydney Olympics is the first and only time he lost in the 200 fly in an international meet (not counting of course, the 2005 World Championships wherein he opted not to swim it). It is--and has always been--his baby. But with his loss in the 400 IM still looming, as well as his "slow" performance in the heats, people have been doubting his ability to dominate in this event in the finals. Will he dominate the field like he has used to? Or will he yield the 200 butterfly crown to someone else?
To do answer that question, we have to look at the competition.
200 Butterfly Finalists
Takeshi Matsuda 1:54.25
Chad le Clos 1:54.34
Chen Yin 1:54.43
Michael Phelps 1:54.53
Tyler Clary 1:54.93
Dinko Jukic 1:54.95
Pawel Korzeniowski 1:55.04
Volimir Stjepanovic 1:55.13
Michael Phelps qualifies fourth after the semi-final with a cruising 1:54.53 behind Takeshi Matsuda (1:54.25), Chad le Clos (1:54.34) and Chen Yin (1:54.43). His teammate, Tyler Clary is right behind him with a 1:54.93.
If I were to classify the two major threats to Phelps in the finals, Matsuda would be on top followed by Clary.
Matsuda has been nipping at Michael's heels for quite some time now. The Beijing bronze medalist has always been able to challenge Phelps at some point in the race only to fade back in the final 50 meters when Michael shifts into overdrive.
Clary, on the other hand, has shown that he can challenge Phelps and his comments about Phelps' poor work ethic may prove as extra motivation for him to overhaul the greatest butterflier in history. If anything, he can use this race to show how his blue-collar ethic can best Phelps' natural talent.
But then again, as accomplished butterfliers as these seven swimmers are, I do not think that anyone of them can defeat Michael in his signature event. For one thing, though he looked struggling a bit, Phelps was clearly holding back, evidenced by his rather short underwater dolphins off the turns. Also, he has yet to fully build--steadily increasing one's speed until the lap ends--in the 3rd 50. Sure, he has engaged his patented closing speed but imagine how fast he could close the lap if he builds the 3rd 50 properly and come off the wall with seven underwater dolphin kicks. That will be scary as it will be fast.
In the finals, I expect Phelps to come out faster than he did in the prelims and the semi-final, leaving his closest competitor by half a body at the first 100. He will then build his 3rd 50 then explode off the wall to engage his legendary closing lap. His time will be anywhere from 1:52.5 to 1:53.3.
Will there be a world record in the 200 fly? I doubt it. Will anybody, Phelps included, come close to Michael's textile best of 1:52.09? I doubt that too but if anybody can come close to that, it would be Phelps.
Will Michael Phelps win the gold and three-peat? Yes.
Take Your Mark!
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