Friday, August 3, 2012

Olympic Analysis: 100 Butterfly

The landscape is set for one the glamor events of swimming. Here are the finalists for the Mens 100 meter butterfly.

100 Meter Butterfly
World Record        49.85    Michael Phelps
Olympic Record    50.58    Michael Phelps

1. Michael Phelps            50.86
2. Chad le Clos                51.42
3. Tyler McGill               51.61
4. Milorad Cavic             51.66
5. Joeri Verlinden           51.75
6. Steffen Deibler           51.76
7. Konrad Czerniak        51.78
8. Evgeny Korotyshkin  51.85

The question on everyone's mind is whether or not Michael Phelps can win his last individual Olympic event and be able to threepeat in two events. After Michael's stunning defeat at the hands of second seed Chad le Clos in the 200 fly, there is a cause for concern. Can le Clos or any of the other finalists deny Michael of his second individual Olympic gold?

My answer? I don't think so.

What is amazing about Michael's 50.86 semi-final time is that he did that right after receiving his gold medal in the 200 IM. That means he was not fully rested which begs the question how much faster could he have gone if he was not coming off a tough duel with Ryan Lochte. Add this to the fact that only Michael and the retired Ian Crocker--who still holds the textile best of a 50.40 (a former world record) in the 100 fly-- are the only swimmers in the world to have broken the 51 second barrier in the 100 fly without the aid of the infamous hi-tech suits should drive home the point. 

So unless le Clos, McGill or Cavic can somehow pull off something spectacular in the finals--say time a 50-mid--Michael would have achieved a second threepeat. 

Take Your Mark!

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