Showing posts with label Olympics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Olympics. Show all posts

Saturday, July 28, 2012

Olympic Prediction: 400 Individual Medley

With the first day of swimming over and done with, we can pretty much see how the landscape of this meet will turnout. That said, I can make my predictions regarding the 400 IM and the 400 freestyle as sound as can be. 

400 IM Finalists
1. Kosuke Hagino (4:10.01)
2. Chad Le Clos (4:12.24)
3. Ryan Lochte (4:12.35)
4. Thiago Perereira (4:12.39)
5. Thomas Fraser-Holmes (4:12.66)
6. Luca Marin (4:13.02)
7. Yuya Horihata (4:13.09)
8. Michael Phelps (4:13.33)

9. Laszlo Cseh (4:13.40)

Part 1 of the Phelps-Lochte duel almost did not happen. After opening up strong in the butterfly with a 54 point something, Phelps held back. Really held back. It is a common practice, of course, for swimmers to have a swim-to-qualify-in-the-finals mindset in a trials-finals (or trials-semi-finals-finals) format. It is a matter of energy conservation and management, you see. The key here is to know exactly how to cruise to actually make it into the final without endangering your chances. So the question is, how slow can you go to still be fast enough?

But Phelps is in--however barely--which keeps the showdown alive.  

Time and again, both men have proven that they are the most versatile swimmers in the world. Their superiority and mastery over one of the most grueling events in swimming--one that showcases all the stroke disciplines in grand fashion--only proves that both have a claim to the title of the Greatest Swimmer in the World.

Notwithstanding their lane assignments (Lochte in Lane 3, Phelps in Lane 8), the 400 IM will just be about Michael and Ryan. Period. I foresee no upsets. But who will come out on top in the first round of the Phelps-Lochte showdown?

Prediction: Ryan Lochte (4:05.75) wins over Michael Phelps (4:05.89).

I base this prediction on two things. First, Ryan has owned Michael in the breaststroke leg ever since the 2010 Pan Pacific Championships. Whatever lead the two will have in the first 200 of the race will cancel each other out since Michael is the better butterflier while Ryan is the better backstroker. Michael will surely play catch up in the freestyle but Ryan has been very adept at holding him off; his lead in the breaststroke has always been too much for his rival. Second, Ryan has been better with his turns and underwater techniques. Michael, in contrast, has not been displaying that uncanny dominance quite like he used too that Ryan has been capitalizing on it.

By my calculations, round 1 to Ryan Lochte.

Sunday, March 18, 2012

Comeback Update: Thorpe Bombs

By placing 21st and 12th in the 100 and 200 meters freestyle respectively, Ian Thorpe's campaign for an Olympic berth has officially ended. I cannot believe that I am going to say this but it is best to take reality as it is. 

We will not see the legendary Thorpedo in the London Games compete against swimmers who have idolized him growing up. 

There will be no Australian relay where Thorpe will either lead or anchor the team to victory.

There won't be a Phelps-Thorpe Showdown Part II in the 200 freestyle.   

At least, not this year anyway.

While Thorpe has expressed disappointment in failing to earn a spot on the Australian Olympic Team, he does, however, insist that his second stint in professional swimming is not yet over. The swimming legend is focused on making the the Rio de Janeiro Olympic team in 2016. But before that, he is eyeing a spot to compete in the 2013 Barcelona World Championships and the 2014 Glasgow Commonwealth Games. 

Even though you did not make the Olympic team, you deserve a warm congratulations for your efforts, Mr. Thorpe. Getting yourself out of retirement and preparing for an Olympic bid with less than a year of training shows just how much guts you have. That alone makes you really a legend. Congratulations!

Take your mark!


Monday, November 14, 2011

The Comeback Season

It seems that with the London 2012 Olympics drawing nearer and nearer, a lot of international swimming legends are mounting a comeback. Perhaps this is due to the banning of the supersuits which gained notoriety after the 2009 Swimming World Championships dubbed "The Plastic Wars"; swimming with the regulation textile jammers (knee-length suits), times are slower but the sport is back to its purest form. Therefore, the playing field has been leveled completely, making swimming inviting once more to former Olympic swimmers. I am sure that aside from the swimmers I will be mentioning, there are many other swimmers who are planning a comeback. But these swimmers are the ones rocking the swimming headlines and are the ones who I am personally looking forward to see.

1. Ian Thorpe - No other former international swimmer has made headlines when announcing his comeback other than Ian Thorpe. Retiring in 2006 citing his waning motivation for the sport, the Australian was arguably the best middle-distance swimmer in the modern era. To point a fact, he was the best swimmer in the world before Michael Phelps came along. From 1999-2004, no one could dethrone him in his pet event, the 400 meters freestyle. Few could forget his forays into long-distance swimming and his duels with compatriot and record holder Grant Hackett in the 800 meters freestyle during the 2001 World Championships in Fukuoka, Japan. Seemingly inexperienced in the race, Thorpe bid his time during the first 700 meters then shifted to a higher gear in the last 100 meters, leaving the veteran long distance swimmer in his wake. His only specialty event wherein his competitors, specifically Peiter Van Dan Hoogenband and a young Michael Phelps, ever got close to him or in the case of Van Dan Hoogenband, actually beat him, was the 200 meters freestyle. Other than that, no swimmer could keep up with his closing laps once his employs to full effect his powerful 6 beat kicks.

With the bodysuit ban in effect, it will be a shame that we will not get to see Thorpe clad in his signature black full bodysuit. It is also more shameful that we won't get to see him swim the 400 freestyle since his focus is the 200 freestyle and a spot in the 4x100 meters freestyle relay. The thought, however, of witnessing a sequel to the Thorpe-Phelps showdown is entertaining especially when the likes of Ryan Locthe, Paul Biedermann, Peter Vanderkay and Park Taeh-Wan are among the fastest 200 meter freestylers today.

Click here to watch The Thorpedo's first international swimming competition in six years. He competed in the 100 IM during the Singapore grand prix.

Click here to watch Ian Thorpe's final world record swim in the 400 meters freestyle with a time of 3:40.08 during the 2002 Commonwealth Games held in Manchester, England. (It is a shame that this record had to go during the 2009 World Championships when Paul Biedermann broke it by 0.01 seconds wearing the infamous Arena X-glide full bodysuit).

2. Geoff Huegill - Swimmers these days do not know who Geoff "Skippy" Huegill is. During his prime, Huegill was one of the most dominant butterfliers in both the world and in Australia. He and compatriot Michael Klim have had a lot of duels in 100 meters butterfly in national and international meets. While Klim has won more swims during their duels, Huegill always gave him a run for his money especially during the first 50 meters. Unlike the 100, the 50 meters butterfly is Huegill's bread and butter. During his prime, he owned the event and even held the world record for a time.

Most do not know that Huegill began his comeback in 2009, during the era of the supersuits. While his motivations back then were simply to get back in shape after gaining over 40 kilograms after his last Olympic stint in 2004, Huegill has been improving leaps and bounds. Testament to his improvement was his gold medal performance in the 100 butterfly during the 2010 Commonwealth Games. What is more impressive is that his gold medal was the first gold medal of Australia during the games, winning it by breaking his personal best time of 52 seconds from the 2000 Sydney Olympics with a 51.69. (Click here to watch the video)

With a stellar performance in 2010 Commonwealth Games as well as having qualified for the 100 butterfly finals during the 2011 World Championships in Shanghai, expect Huegill to be gracing the final of his signature event in the 2012 London Games. The gold medal maybe out of reach for Skippy since Michael Phelps has been the dominant swimmer in the 100 butterfly since 2007. However, it is possible for him to win the silver or bronze medals; Phelps aside, the field is quite close with the likes of Tyler Clary, Jason Dunford and compatriot Andrew Lauterstien in the mix. Let's not forget Serbian Milorad Cavic who, after finishing second to Phelps by the closest of margins in 2008 and 2009, is gunning for a rematch with the Baltimore Bulltet. But it would be a perfect ending if this comebacking veteran gets a podium finish in the 2012 London Games.

3. Brendan Hansen - Known for his outspoken demeanor on top of his powerful breaststroke, Brendan Hansen is back with a vengeance. One of the original members of the Texas Trio--an epically fast swimming stable of the Texas Longhorns Swim Team comprised of butterflier Ian Crocker, backstroker Aaron Piersol as well as Hansen, all former world records in their specialty events--Hansen's comeback has not received the proper amount of international attention as opposed to Thorpe and Huegill. Regardless, Hansen will perhaps bring about the renaissance of American breaststroke dominance (or so the experts predict it).

History has proven that the Olympics is a venue wherein Hansen has had his difficulties. During the US Olympic Trials in 2004, he convincingly gained a spot in the national team by setting world records in both the 100 and 200 meters breaststroke. With the expectations of an entire nation behind him, Hansen was nowhere near his world record times during the Olympics itself. He finished second in the 100 meters breaststroke behind Japan's Kosuke Kitajima and swimming to third in the 200. While earning a medal as part of the 4x100 medley relay team, Hansen placed fourth in the 100 breaststroke during the 2008 Beijing Olympics.

However, much like his Texas Trio partner Ian Crocker, the Swimming World Championships is where he has been dominating in the breaststroke. During the 2005 World Championships in Montreal, Hansen produced a double gold performance in the 100 and 200 breaststroke. He was also a member of the gold medal 4x100 meters medley relay team alongside Texas Trio teammates Crocker and Piersol as well as veteran freestyler Jason Lezak. During the 2007 World Championships in Melbourne, Hansen again won the 100 meters breaststroke as well finishing second in the 50.

Emphasizing that he is back for good, Hansen won the 100 and 200 meters breaststroke during the US National Championships. Though his times may not be near his personal bests (which are former world records), it is evident that he is on the right track and will no doubt be someone to be reckoned with come the US Olympic Trials and, if he plays his cards right, the London Olympics itself.

Click here to watch Brendan Hansen's world record swim in the 100 breast during the 2006 US National Championships.

Click here to watch Hansen's comeback victory in the 100 breast during the 2011 US National Championships.

4. Michael Klim - If ever there is a swimmer who embodied a versatile sprinter before and during the first years of the millennium, Michael Klim would be it. With his trademark skin head, "Klimy" was nearly unmatched in the 100 butterfly and was always among the top medal contenders in the 100 and 200 meter freestyle. Klim was the first man under 52 seconds in the 100 butterfly by setting the then world record of 51.81 in 1999. It stood for nearly four years before Andri Serdinov, Michael Phelps and finally Ian Crocker lowered it to 51.76, 51.46 and 50.98 respectively during the 1st heat of the semi-final, 2nd heat of the semi-final and final heat of the 100 butterfly during the 2003 World Championships.

In the 100 freestyle, Klim stood out among the competition by incorporating his signature underwater dolphins from the dive and off the turn in an effort to gain an advantage over his opponents. On top of his underwater technique, Klim employed a unique strategy when approaching the wall during the 100 free. In contrast to the traditional style of maintaining his six-beat kick all throughout the race, Klim would utilize body dolphins 15 meters away from the wall to facilitate a stronger finish. The technique looks awfully ridiculous but speaking from experience, the move is truly a handy technique since the body dolphins utilizes a different and less tired muscle group than the that of the flutter kicks.

Much like Brendan Hansen, Michael Klim has not enjoyed much success in the Olympics with respect to his individual events. In 2000 Sydney Olympics, many were expecting Klim to bring home gold in both the 100 freestyle and butterfly. Coming into the Olympics, Klim was the current world record holder in the 100 butterfly with a 51.81. Though qualifying second for the final heat and leading almost the entire race, Klim was upstaged by Lars Frolander who, almost out of nowhere, overtook Klim in the last 5 meters and out-touched the Australian. In the 100 freestyle, Klim finished 6th even after breaking the then world record during his relay leg. In the 2004 Olympics, Klim was part of the Australian 4x100 and 4x200 freestyle relays helping his team place 6th and 2nd respectively.

In contrast to Hansen however, Klim has an Olympic moment which will forever be remembered in the history of swimming. Before 2000, no other country has won the 4x100 meters freestyle other than the USA. As such, the American team consisting of Anthony Ervin, Neil Walker, Jason Lezak and Gary Hall, Jr. were extremely confident coming into the event with Hall going as far as claiming that they will smash the Australians "like guitars". Needless to say, the team of Klim, Chris Fydler, Ashley Callus and Ian Thorpe upset the Americans through the record breaking swim of Klim in his opening 100 as well as an extremely epic chase down by the anchoring Ian Thorpe (click here to watch the race). With the gold medal and relay world record to boot, Klim led his teammates in playing air guitar in reference to Hall's pre-race jabs.

To be honest, I would not be so bold as to predict whether or not Michael Klim would qualify for the Australian Team for the 2012 Games. If he does, then I would get to see one of my swimming heroes in action once more. If he doesn't, well, at least he did something about his desire to accomplish all the things he left unfinished in the pool. But then again, I would like to see the old "Shave Down the Pool, Klimy" signs adorning the stands once more.

Take Your Mark!