Olympic Analysis: Phelps & The 200 Butterfly

After the semi-finals, the landscape of the mens 200 butterfly is clear. The times put up by the finalists tell a great story which is about to unfold in a few hours. However, the greatest story is without a doubt Michael Phelps' chance to three-peat in his signature event. More than his date with destiny, what makes this swim sentimental is that the 200 fly is where it all began for Phelps. His Olympic debut as a lanky 15 year old kid in the 2000 Sydney Olympics is the first and only time he lost in the 200 fly in an international meet (not counting of course, the 2005 World Championships wherein he opted not to swim it). It is--and has always been--his baby. But with his loss in the 400 IM still looming, as well as his "slow" performance in the heats, people have been doubting his ability to dominate in this event in the finals. Will he dominate the field like he has used to? Or will he yield the 200 butterfly crown to someone else? 

To do answer that question, we have to look at the competition.

200 Butterfly Finalists

Takeshi Matsuda              1:54.25

Chad le Clos                     1:54.34

Chen Yin                          1:54.43

Michael Phelps                 1:54.53

Tyler Clary                       1:54.93

Dinko Jukic                      1:54.95

Pawel Korzeniowski        1:55.04

Volimir Stjepanovic          1:55.13

Michael Phelps qualifies fourth after the semi-final with a cruising 1:54.53 behind Takeshi Matsuda (1:54.25), Chad le Clos (1:54.34) and Chen Yin (1:54.43). His teammate, Tyler Clary is right behind him with a 1:54.93. 

If I were to classify the two major threats to Phelps in the finals, Matsuda would be on top followed by Clary. 

Matsuda has been nipping at Michael's heels for quite some time now. The Beijing bronze medalist has always been able to challenge Phelps at some point in the race only to fade back in the final 50 meters when Michael shifts into overdrive. 

Clary, on the other hand, has shown that he can challenge Phelps and his comments about Phelps' poor work ethic may prove as extra motivation for him to overhaul the greatest butterflier in history. If anything, he can use this race to show how his blue-collar ethic can best Phelps' natural talent. 

But then again, as accomplished butterfliers as these seven swimmers are, I do not think that anyone of them can defeat Michael in his signature event. For one thing, though he looked struggling a bit, Phelps was clearly holding back, evidenced by his rather short underwater dolphins off the turns. Also, he has yet to fully build--steadily increasing one's speed until the lap ends--in the 3rd 50. Sure, he has engaged his patented closing speed but imagine how fast he could close the lap if he builds the 3rd 50 properly and come off the wall with seven underwater dolphin kicks. That will be scary as it will be fast. 

In the finals, I expect Phelps to come out faster than he did in the prelims and the semi-final, leaving his closest competitor by half a body at the first 100. He will then build his 3rd 50 then explode off the wall to engage his legendary closing lap. His time will be anywhere from 1:52.5 to 1:53.3.

Will there be a world record in the 200 fly? I doubt it. Will anybody, Phelps included, come close to Michael's textile best of 1:52.09? I doubt that too but if anybody can come close to that, it would be Phelps.

Will Michael Phelps win the gold and three-peat? Yes. 

 Take Your Mark!

Olympic Reaction: Aussie's WMD bombs in French Redemption

It has been all over the news now and I am guessing that I am probably one of the last people to blog about this but still, I have to give my two cents on the matter. 

In the most anticipated relay in London, surprises were abound as the USA failed to defend their gold and brought home the silver medal everyone expected they would. But the team they yielded their supremacy to was not the heralded Australians with their Weapons of Mass Destruction--the collective nickname of the sprint tandem of James "Missile" Magnussen and James "Rocket" Roberts. Rather, it was their French arch-rivals who did the dethroning behind the blistering chase down anchor swim of Yannick Agnel. 

In a rather surprising twist of fate, the Americans found themselves at the receiving end of an upset after a Jason Lezak-esque Hail Mary swim from Agnel who split a 46.74 to Ryan Lochte's 47.74. The French have finally won that elusive Olympic gold medal while the Americans, as a consolation prize of sorts, still managed to defeat the mighty Aussies.

The Duel that Never Happened
Many thought, myself included, that this relay will be a duel between the Aussies and the Americans while the other teams slug it out for third place. After all, America is the defending gold medalists while the Australians have their freestyle WMD's--Magnussen and Roberts--to reckon with. But what went wrong that this highly anticipated duel never materialized? Let's break it down and find out.

The Aussies went with the team of Magnussen, Matt Targett, Eamon Sullivan and James Roberts. Strategy wise, the arrangement of the swimmers is sound and should have been dominating. Their lead off swimmer is the fastest 100 freestyler in the world; more than capable of clearing 48 seconds and can possibly challenge the world record of 46.94. After him are two battle-hardened veterans who have the ability to swim a 48-low on a flat start. Special mention has to be made of course to third swimmer Eamon Sullivan who is a former record holder himself in the 100 freestyle. And to bring them home, you have the other half of the WMD in Roberts who should easily be able to time a 46-high to a 47-low given that he will be able to use a flying start--a relay turnover technique which would at least subtract half a second to his flat start personal best of 47.54.

On paper, the Aussies could have gotten a 3:09.1 with Magnussen timing a 46.90, Targett a 47.60, Sullivan a 47.50 and Roberts a 47.10. That would have been good enough for the gold as well as the second fastest time in history in the 4x100 freestyle relay.

But, like I said in my previous entry, what is good on paper does not necessarily translate to reality especially when your two aces did not quite deliver.

The middle-swimmers of Targett and Sullivan could have swum faster but timing a 47 point is a good enough. But the WMD's bombed greatly, so to speak. Magnussen led the Aussies off with a 48.03--a full second off his personal best. Roberts closed with a 48.09--from a flying start I might add; which means he could have gone slower if it were a normal flat start--half a second off his personal best.

What happened you might ask? I really do not know the answer to that. Perhaps the pressure got to Magnussen and Roberts who, mind you, are first time Olympians. Perhaps the two miscalculated their speed and employed a wrong strategy. Whatever the reason was, your guess is as good as mine.

Reshuffling the Aces
For the USA, I have to give them credit for assembling the best swimmers at their disposal to go up against their rivals. Everyone was wondering who would join Nathan Adrian and Cullen Jones in the finals. Would it be the ever reliable Michael Phelps who holds the world record in that event with Jones, Garett Webber-Gale and Jason Lezak? Or would it be the inexperienced 100 freestyler but the current holder of the Greatest Swimmer in the World moniker Ryan Lochte?

Or would it be both of them? Which makes perfect sense because in times like these, you need your best swimmers in the front lines; swimmers who do not crack under pressure but rather, thrive in it.

In the end, the USA was represented by Nathan Adrian, Michael Phelps, Cullen Jones and Ryan Lochte. Reading into their arrangement, with Phelps ceding his traditional lead-off spot to Adrian, the Americans wanted to get as close to Magnussen as possible by having their fastest swimmer go first. That would give Adrian enough incentive to go a 47-mid to high since he will be holding off a hard-charging Magnussen in the return 50. After Adrian, it would be Phelps' turn to chase the leaders and turn in a 47-mid. Jones would then turn in a 47-mid to low to give Lochte enough of a lead to close it or enough distance to make up. Lochte then would be tasked to bring it home possibly with a 47-mid to high.

And the plan worked! But only to a degree, of course. Adrian out-swam Magnussen, finally breaking 48 seconds in the process by turning in a 47.89. Phelps left everybody in his wake by turning in a 47.15 split--the fastest among his teammates. Jones did his part by swimming a 47-high though I thought he could have gone a bit faster to give Lochte enough of a cushion to bring it home. Lochte, though being chased down in the end by Agnel, still managed to get a decent 47.74.

Second Guessing the Greatest
After that chase down, as well as Matt Grevers' 47.5 split in the morning prelims, some have been second guessing the decision to insert Lochte instead of Grevers in the finals. It makes sense that Grevers could have swam faster by almost half a second from his morning time. Also, Grevers is a much more experienced freestyle relay swimmer--or a 100 meter freestyler for that matter--than Lochte. So why would Lochte be inserted when it seems that Grevers is the better choice?

Like I said, in times like these, one needs to assemble the greatest swimmers in one's line up--swimmers who do not crack under pressure. Ryan Lochte is without a doubt one of the greatest swimmers of all time. If such an ace is at your disposal, does not logic dictate that you utilize him? For a decorated swimmer such as himself, his genius and skill in the water trumps whatever disadvantage his inexperience may bring about.

Also, one has to remember that the US team was built to withstand the challenge imposed by the Aussies, them and them alone. If you look at the splits, Lochte clearly got the better of his counterpart in James Roberts, 47.74 to 48.09. That should count for something.

Ryan Lochte was the best choice to be the fourth man of the team. He and Phelps are the two greatest swimmers in the world and to have them both in one relay team makes that foursome a powerhouse.

Yannick Agnel was simply faster than Lochte. Lochte did not let up nor did he allow Agnel to chase him down.

The Americans lost to the better team. While everyone expected--even wanted--that team to be the Australians, it was the French, who were all but forgotten but nonetheless had a score to settle, who dethroned them.

If anything, that is the Olympic spirit right there. Never giving up and fighting until the very last moment.

Take Your Mark!

Olympic Analysis: 4x100 Meter Freestyle Relay

All things considered and held constant, the 4x100 meter freestyle relay is going to be duel between Australia and the USA. The French and Russians may keep things interesting by challenging USA just like what they did in the 2011 World Championships in Shanghai. But something tells me that it will not be the case this time around. The Americans are the defending Olympic champions while the Australians are extremely fast. 

My Thoughts after the Prelims

Australia won the prelims over the USA after James "The Missle" Magnussen chased down Jason "The Miracle Man" Lezak. That prelim win guaranteed the Australians top seed in the finals while the USA will be right beside them in Lane 5. 

Team Australia was composed of Cameron McEvoy (48.94), James Roberts (48.22), Tommaso D'Orsogna (47.78) and James Magnussen (47.35). 

Team USA, on the other hand, was represented by Jimmy Feigen (48.49), Matt Grevers (47.54), Ricky Berens (48.52) and Jason Lezak (48.08). 

Before the relay, rumors circulated that the Australian coaches wanted to insert Magnussen in the prelims. The reasons I heard were varied but in my mind, the inclusion of the fastest 100 meter freestyler in the preliminary heats can only mean one of two things. Either the Australians are making sure that they have the top seed coming finals or they are using The Missile as an intimidation tactic. Whatever the reason, it worked.

However, I was kind of surprised that both the fastest and second fastest 100 meter freestyler swam in the heats for Australia. The inclusion of James "The Rocket" Roberts was very much a mystery to me since conventional strategy dictates that one does not immediately show your best hand until the time is right. I was actually expecting to see Eamon Sullivan in the heats instead of Roberts so that the latter will be fresher and more rested in the finals. Whatever the reason, the test fire round of the Missile and the Rocket was successful. They had decent splits but it was evident that they were holding back plenty. 

Team USA went with the line up I expected. Their strategy was sound, relying on an eager youngster to start them off (Feigen), two freestyle veterans to keep them in pace (Grevers and Berens) and a living legend and tough-as-nails closer to bring them home (Lezak). Sure, Lezak may have been overtaken by the hard-charging Magnussen but one has to credit Lezak for two things. One, he actually had to make Magnussen work to overtake him and two, he held off the Russians who were always coming in fast. His split may be off of his legendary 46.06 in Beijing but his 48.08 got the job done nonetheless. 

The Finals

As is the case in such meets, the final heat will feature different line-ups from both teams, with one or two swimmers from the morning prelims being retained to swim once more. 

For the Australians, their finals team will obviously be Magnussen, Roberts, Matt Targett and Eamon Sullivan, swimming in that order too. They will be relying on pure speed--capitalizing on having the top two sprinters in the world as well as the former world record holder in Sullivan. For them to secure the gold, they have to leave everybody in their wake and keep them all at a distance. Simple enough.

The Americans, on the other hand, have to rely on experience, timing and of course luck to pull out all the stops and defend their gold. Their luxury, of course, is having either Michael Phelps or Ryan Lochte (or both of them if need be) in their finals team along with Nathan Adrian and Cullen Jones. In my opinion, Michael will be the better option since he has swam a 48-low in a meet before the Olympic trials and has always been faster in the 100 free than Lochte.

From their prelims team, I wager that Grevers will be called up on account of his 47.54 split. With that, I thinking that the best possible order for the US will be Phelps, Jones, Grevers and Adrian. Phelps can, at best, swim a 47.89 or at worst a 48.10. Either way, his job will be to stay as close to Magnussen as possible since the Missile will surely be swimming anywhere from 46.90 to 47.20. Making up for that 1 second difference will now be the task of Grevers and Jones, who will have no problems swimming a 47-mid to high thanks to the relay turnover or "flying start". Adrian will have the toughest job yet of either sustaining a very narrow lead or chasing down a former record holder. He will have to time a 46-high or 47-low, I imagine.

Conclusion

On paper, the Australians have got this one in the bag. But then again what is written on paper does not necessarily translate to reality in the Olympic Games. Just ask Alain Bernard and the French if you do not believe me. We will have to wait and see what happens tomorrow. If there is one thing is certain in this race it is that it will be a battle. Pure aquatic battle.

Take your mark!

Olympic Prediction: 400 Individual Medley

With the first day of swimming over and done with, we can pretty much see how the landscape of this meet will turnout. That said, I can make my predictions regarding the 400 IM and the 400 freestyle as sound as can be. 

400 IM Finalists

1. Kosuke Hagino (4:10.01)

2. Chad Le Clos (4:12.24)

3. Ryan Lochte (4:12.35)

4. Thiago Perereira (4:12.39)

5. Thomas Fraser-Holmes (4:12.66)

6. Luca Marin (4:13.02)

7. Yuya Horihata (4:13.09)

8. Michael Phelps (4:13.33)

9. Laszlo Cseh (4:13.40)

Part 1 of the Phelps-Lochte duel almost did not happen. After opening up strong in the butterfly with a 54 point something, Phelps held back. Really held back. It is a common practice, of course, for swimmers to have a swim-to-qualify-in-the-finals mindset in a trials-finals (or trials-semi-finals-finals) format. It is a matter of energy conservation and management, you see. The key here is to know exactly how to cruise to actually make it into the final without endangering your chances. So the question is, how slow can you go to still be fast enough?

But Phelps is in--however barely--which keeps the showdown alive.  

Time and again, both men have proven that they are the most versatile swimmers in the world. Their superiority and mastery over one of the most grueling events in swimming--one that showcases all the stroke disciplines in grand fashion--only proves that both have a claim to the title of the Greatest Swimmer in the World.

Notwithstanding their lane assignments (Lochte in Lane 3, Phelps in Lane 8), the 400 IM will just be about Michael and Ryan. Period. I foresee no upsets. But who will come out on top in the first round of the Phelps-Lochte showdown?

Prediction: Ryan Lochte (4:05.75) wins over Michael Phelps (4:05.89).

I base this prediction on two things. First, Ryan has owned Michael in the breaststroke leg ever since the 2010 Pan Pacific Championships. Whatever lead the two will have in the first 200 of the race will cancel each other out since Michael is the better butterflier while Ryan is the better backstroker. Michael will surely play catch up in the freestyle but Ryan has been very adept at holding him off; his lead in the breaststroke has always been too much for his rival. Second, Ryan has been better with his turns and underwater techniques. Michael, in contrast, has not been displaying that uncanny dominance quite like he used too that Ryan has been capitalizing on it.

By my calculations, round 1 to Ryan Lochte.