Olympic Analysis: 50 Freestyle

The Splash-and-Dash event is finally down to the top eight fastest swimmers in the world. Here's the list:

50 Meter Freestyle Finalists

Cesar Cielo                21.54

Cullen Jones              21.54

Anthony Ervin          21.62

Bruno Fratus             21.63

George Bovell           21.77

Florent Manaudou     21.80

Eamon Sullivan         21.88

Roland Schoeman     21.88

Analysis: As you can see, only 0.30 seconds separates the finalists. Defending Olympic champion Cesar Cielo ties with the much improved Cullen Jones with a 21.54 while the 2000 Olympic 50 freestyle champion Anthony Ervin comes in at 3rd. 

The thing which makes the 50 meter freestyle very difficult to analyze and predict is that, by nature, it is anyone's race. Of course your lane assignment matters but even the outer extremities have a chance to win as much as those in the inner lanes. One does not need any special skill or tactic; it needs little technique other than having an explosive start, excellent finish and the ability to resist the urge to "spin one's wheels" by holding one's stroke pattern. 

That said, my prediction for this race will be Cielo (21-low), Ervin (21-mid) then Jones (21-mid-high). With how Cielo has been swimming in the heats and semi-final, taking him down will take a lot more than speed and power. Inasmuch as I have always been a fan of Cullen, my money is on Anthony challenging Ceilo since he knows what to it takes to win the gold medal in the 50 free. That and him earning a medal 12 years after his first Olympics makes one hell of a fairytale story.

Perhaps the two dark horses of this race would be George Bovell and Roland Schoeman. Bovell posted an Olympic textile best in the heats, proving that he has speed. Schoeman, on the other hand, has always been one of the greatest sprinters in the world and has always been a fixture in almost every 50 meter freestyle (or butterfly) final of any international competition. The fact that he is in lane 8 makes him all the more scarier since no one will notice him creep up for the finish. 

As I said before, it is very difficult to predict the outcome of the 50 free. In tomorrow's final, do not blink lest you miss a spectacular finish. 

Take Your Mark!

Olympic Analysis: 100 Butterfly

The landscape is set for one the glamor events of swimming. Here are the finalists for the Mens 100 meter butterfly.

100 Meter Butterfly

World Record        49.85    Michael Phelps

Olympic Record    50.58    Michael Phelps

1. Michael Phelps            50.86

2. Chad le Clos                51.42

3. Tyler McGill               51.61

4. Milorad Cavic             51.66

5. Joeri Verlinden           51.75

6. Steffen Deibler           51.76

7. Konrad Czerniak        51.78

8. Evgeny Korotyshkin  51.85

The question on everyone's mind is whether or not Michael Phelps can win his last individual Olympic event and be able to threepeat in two events. After Michael's stunning defeat at the hands of second seed Chad le Clos in the 200 fly, there is a cause for concern. Can le Clos or any of the other finalists deny Michael of his second individual Olympic gold?

My answer? I don't think so.

What is amazing about Michael's 50.86 semi-final time is that he did that right after receiving his gold medal in the 200 IM. That means he was not fully rested which begs the question how much faster could he have gone if he was not coming off a tough duel with Ryan Lochte. Add this to the fact that only Michael and the retired Ian Crocker--who still holds the textile best of a 50.40 (a former world record) in the 100 fly-- are the only swimmers in the world to have broken the 51 second barrier in the 100 fly without the aid of the infamous hi-tech suits should drive home the point. 

So unless le Clos, McGill or Cavic can somehow pull off something spectacular in the finals--say time a 50-mid--Michael would have achieved a second threepeat. 

Take Your Mark!